Bank of Canada Rate Announcement July 10th, 2019

Matt Chan • July 10, 2019

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.

Evidence has been accumulating that ongoing trade tensions are having a material effect on the global economic outlook. The Bank had already incorporated such negative effects in previous  Monetary Policy Reports  (MPR) and in this forecast has made further adjustments in light of weaker sentiment and activity in major economies. Trade conflicts between the United States and China, in particular, are curbing manufacturing activity and business investment and pushing down commodity prices.

Policy is responding to the slowdown: central banks in the US and Europe have signalled their readiness to provide more accommodative monetary policy and further policy stimulus has been implemented in China. In this context, global financial conditions have eased substantially. The Bank now expects global GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2019 and to strengthen to around 3 ¼ percent in 2020 and 2021, with the US slowing to a pace near its potential. Escalation of trade conflicts remains the biggest downside risk to the global and Canadian outlooks.

Following temporary weakness in late 2018 and early 2019, Canada’s economy is returning to growth around potential, as expected. Growth in the second quarter appears to be stronger than predicted due to some temporary factors, including the reversal of weather-related slowdowns in the first quarter and a surge in oil production. Consumption is being supported by a healthy labour market. At the national level, the housing market is stabilizing, although there are still significant adjustments underway in some regions. A material decline in longer-term mortgage rates is supporting housing activity. Exports rebounded in the second quarter and will grow moderately as foreign demand continues to expand. However, ongoing trade conflicts and competitiveness challenges are dampening the outlook for trade and investment. The Bank projects real GDP growth to average 1.3 percent in 2019 and about 2 percent in 2020 and 2021.

Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.

Recent data show the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth. However, the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions. Taken together, the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate. As Governing Council continues to monitor incoming data, it will pay particular attention to developments in the energy sector and the impact of trade conflicts on the prospects for Canadian growth and inflation.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 4, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 30, 2019.

The remaining announcement dates in 2019 are as follows:

  • September 4th 2019
  • October 30th 2019*
  • December 4th 2019

* Monetary Policy Report  published

CONTACT

Share

RECENT POSTS

By Matthew Chan July 29, 2026
What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You Online mortgage calculators are everywhere—and on the surface, they seem like a no-brainer. You plug in some numbers, and out pops what you can “afford.” Simple, right? Not quite. While the math itself is correct, the story behind those numbers is often misleading. Mortgage qualification isn’t just about numbers—it’s about context, risk, and lender policy. And that’s where calculators fall short. The Numbers Are Accurate—but the Picture Isn’t An online calculator can show you what a payment might look like at a given interest rate, or how making extra payments could reduce your amortization. That’s useful information! But when it comes to mortgage qualification , calculators don’t account for the many variables that lenders consider, such as: Your credit history and score Employment type (salary, self-employed, contract) Outstanding debts and monthly obligations Assets, savings, and down payment source The property type and location you’re buying Lenders evaluate all these factors through their internal risk models. That means two people entering the exact same numbers into a calculator could receive very different results when they actually apply for a mortgage. Why Online Calculators Can Mislead You When you see a “How much can I afford?” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator online, it’s easy to treat the result as fact. But these tools don’t know your financial story—they only crunch the data you enter. A calculator can’t predict how a lender views your risk, how new mortgage rules apply to your file, or how things like spousal support, car loans, or variable income will impact approval. In short: calculators estimate payments, not qualification . Use Calculators the Right Way Don’t get us wrong—online calculators still have value. Use them to explore different “what-if” scenarios: How do payments change with different down payment amounts? How would a rate increase affect affordability? What if you added $100 a month to your payments? These tools are great for helping you understand your comfort zone. Just remember: they’re a starting point, not a green light. The Real First Step: Get a Pre-Approval If you’re serious about buying a home, skip the guesswork and get a mortgage pre-approval . It’s quick, free, and gives you real-world clarity on what you can afford. A pre-approval looks at your full financial picture—income, credit, debts, assets—and provides a framework for your purchase price, payment range, and rate options. It’s the only way to get a reliable answer to the question, “What can I really afford?” Final Thoughts Online calculators are convenient, but they can’t replace expert advice. Think of them as a starting point, not a solution. A professional mortgage broker can interpret the numbers, navigate lender policies, and tailor your financing strategy to your actual situation. If you’d like help understanding your true buying power—or want to get pre-approved with confidence— reach out anytime . I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you make sense of the numbers.
By Matthew Chan July 22, 2026
Going Through a Divorce? Don’t Let Your Credit Take the Hit Divorce is stressful enough without adding financial fallout to the mix. Between lawyers, paperwork, and emotional strain, it’s easy to overlook how a separation can impact your credit. But your financial future depends on protecting it now—because long after the dust settles, a damaged credit score can linger. Here are a few smart steps to help keep your credit strong and your finances steady as you move forward. 1. Take Control of Joint Debts When it comes to joint debt, both parties are equally responsible—no matter what your divorce agreement says. If your ex misses a payment on an account with your name attached, your credit takes the hit too. Go through all joint credit cards, loans, and lines of credit. Wherever possible: Close joint accounts to stop future shared use. Transfer balances to the person responsible for repayment. Notify lenders in writing of any changes to account ownership. Once everything is updated, pull your credit report after three to six months to confirm all joint accounts have been closed and reporting correctly. Mistakes happen—stay proactive to prevent surprises later. 2. Open Your Own Bank Accounts Separation means financial independence, and that starts with your own banking. Open a new chequing account in your name only and redirect your pay deposits and bill payments there. At the same time, close any joint bank accounts and change passwords on existing online banking and credit profiles. Even in peaceful separations, shared access can cause confusion—or conflict. Protect yourself by ensuring your money and information are secure. 3. Start Building Credit in Your Name If most of your past credit was tied to your spouse’s name, now’s the time to establish your own. Apply for a small personal credit card or secured credit product . Use it sparingly and pay it off in full each month. This helps you build a solid individual credit history, setting the stage for future goals like buying a home, refinancing, or starting fresh financially. 4. Keep an Eye on Your Credit Monitor your credit report regularly for errors or unexpected changes. You can request free reports from both major credit bureaus in Canada— Equifax and TransUnion —once a year. Tracking your credit isn’t just about catching mistakes; it helps you see your progress as you rebuild your financial independence. Final Thoughts Divorce can be emotionally draining, but protecting your credit doesn’t have to be complicated. By taking a few careful steps now—closing joint accounts, building credit in your name, and monitoring your reports—you’ll safeguard your financial health and gain peace of mind as you start your next chapter. If you’d like personalized guidance on managing credit during or after a divorce, reach out anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through your options.
By Matthew Chan July 15, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The tone of today's announcement is notably more optimistic than previous months. Here's what's changed and what it means for you.